Global disease burden of Interstitial Lung Disease and Pulmonary Sarcoidosis, 1990-2021, and forecast analysis over the next decade
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Keywords
Interstitial lung disease, Pulmonary sarcoidosis, Prevalence, Incidence, Mortality, Disability-adjusted life years, Global burden of disease
Abstract
Background and aim: Interstitial lung disease is a major class of disease that affect lung health, however, there is a lack of epidemiological studies related to the global burden of this disease. Data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021) were utilized to evaluate the global burden of interstitial lung disease and pulmonary sarcoidosis(ILD&PS) comprehensively in 21 global regions, 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021, examining their association with the sociodemographic index, and forecasting trends for the forthcoming decade.
Methods: We analyzed the prevalence, incidence, mortality and disability-adjusted life years associated with ILD&PS using GBD 2021 database, using the generalized linear model to determine the estimated annual percentage change in age-standardized rates from 1990 to 2021, combining the sociodemographic index with the inequality slope index and the centralization index of the international analysis of health inequalities to assess differences in disease burden in ILD&PS. To analyze the global distribution and regional differences in disease burden of ILD&PS, we produced global maps and regional comparative analyses. Furthermore, by decomposition analysis, we determined the impact of population growth, ageing and epidemiological changes on the burden of disease. In addition, trends in disease burden over the next 10 years were predicted using the Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort prediction model.
Results: From 1990 to 2021, the global burden of ILD&PS has been on the rise. Generally, Higher age‐standardized rates of ILD&PS were observed in higher age groups and areas with a high socio-demographic index. Moreover, population growth and ageing are the main causes of the increased burden of disease. Projections indicate that by 2034, the disease burden of ILD&PS will continue to rise.
Conclusions: The global disease burden of ILD&PS remains significant and deserves our attention. People aged 70-84 and high sociodemographic index group should be the focus of attention.
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