The spread of COVID-19 in six western metropolitan regions: a false myth on the excess of mortality in Lombardy and the defense of the city of Milan
Keywords:
COVID-19, Mortality, Metropolitan regions, Hospital care systemAbstract
We analyzed the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic in 6 metropolitan regions with similar demographic characteristics, daytime commuting population and business activities: the New York metropolitan area, the Île-de-France region, the Greater London county, Bruxelles-Capital, the Community of Madrid and the Lombardy region. The highest mortality rates 30-days after the onset of the epidemic were recorded in New York (81.2 x 100,000) and Madrid (77.1 x 100,000). Lombardy mortality rate is below average (41.4 per 100,000), and it is the only situation in which the capital of the region (Milan) has not been heavily impacted by the epidemic wave. Our study analyzed the role played by containment measures and the positive contribution offered by the hospital care system. (www.actabiomedica.it)
References
References
Boerner L, Severgnini B. Il commercio è alleato dei virus, lo dice la storia. 2020; https://www.lavoce.info/archives/64259/lo-dice-la-storia-il-commercio-e-alleato-dei-virus/. Accessed 13 April 2020.
World Health Organization. COVID-19 weekly surveillance report. 2020; http://www.euro.who.int/en/health-topics/health-emergencies/coronavirus-covid-19/weekly-surveillance-report, 2020.
Sebastiani G. Il coronavirus ha viaggiato in autostrada? 2020; https://www.scienzainrete.it/articolo/coronavirus-ha-viaggiato-autostrada/giovanni-sebastiani/2020-04-09. Accessed 13 April 2020.
Gatto M, Bertuzzo E, Mari L, et al. Spread dynamics of the covid-19 epidemic in Italy: effects of emergency containment measures. PNAS. 2020;in press.
Prem K, Liu Y, Russell TW, et al. The effect of control strategies to reduce social mixing on outcomes of the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan, China: a modelling study. Lancet Public Health. 2020.
Wilder-Smith A, Chiew CJ, Lee VJ. Can we contain the COVID-19 outbreak with the same measures as for SARS? Lancet Infect Dis. 2020.
Kraemer MUG, Yang CH, Gutierrez B, et al. The effect of human mobility and control measures on the COVID-19 epidemic in China. Science. 2020;in press.
Signorelli C, Scognamiglio T, Odone A. COVID-19 in Italy: impact of containment measures and prevalence estimates of infection in the general population. Acta Biomed. 2020;91(3-S):175-179.
Tang B, Wang X, Li Q, et al. Estimation of the Transmission Risk of the 2019-nCoV and Its Implication for Public Health Interventions. J Clin Med. 2020;9(2).
Mayor S. Covid-19: Researchers launch app to track spread of symptoms in the UK. BMJ. 2020;368:m1263.
Gianfredi V, Odone A, Fiacchini D, Rosselli R, Battista T, Signorelli C. Trust and reputation management, branding, social media management nelle organizzazioni sanitarie: sfide e opportunità per la comunità igienistica italiana. J Prev Med Hyg. 2019;60(3):E108-E109.
Gianfredi V, Grisci C, Nucci D, Parisi V, Moretti M. [Communication in health.]. Recenti Prog Med. 2018;109(7):374-383.
Gan WH, Lim JW, Koh D. Preventing intra-hospital infection and transmission of COVID-19 in healthcare workers. Saf Health Work. 2020;in press.
Lau JT, Fung KS, Wong TW, et al. SARS transmission among hospital workers in Hong Kong. Emerg Infect Dis. 2004;10(2):280-286.
European Centre for Disease prevention and Control. Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic: increased transmission in the EU/EEA and the UK – seventh update. Stockholm25 March 2020.
Cereda D, Tirani M, Rovida F, et al. The early phase of the COVID-19 outbreak in Lombardy, Italy. Arvix. 2020;in press.
UCSC. Coronavirus, le stime dei ricercatori: “In Italia almeno 2800 morti non dichiarati”. 2020; https://www.lastampa.it/topnews/primo-piano/2020/03/30/news/le-stime-dei-ricercatori-almeno-2800-morti-non-dichiarati-1.38653880. Accessed 13 April 2020.
United States Census. Explore Census Data. 2020; https://data.census.gov/cedsci/. Accessed 13 April 2020.
United States Census. New York County (Manhattan Borough), New York. 2020; https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/newyorkcountymanhattanboroughnewyork. Accessed 13 April 2020.
United States Census. Commuter-Adjusted Population Estimates: ACS 2006-10. 2010; https://www.census.gov/library/working-papers/2010/demo/mckenzie-01.html. Accessed 13 April 2020.
New York State Department of Health. Hospitals by Region/County and Service. 2020; https://profiles.health.ny.gov/hospital/county_or_region/region:new+york+metro+-+new+york+city. Accessed 13 April 2020.
Melby C, Gu J, Rojanasakul M. Mapping New York City Hospital Beds as Coronavirus Cases Surge. 2020; https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-new-york-coronavirus-outbreak-how-many-hospital-beds/. Accessed 13 April 2020.
New York State Department of Health. Hospitals by Region/County and Service. 2020; https://profiles.health.ny.gov/hospital/county_or_region/region:new+york+metro+-+new+york+city.
The City. Coronavirus in New York City. 2020; https://projects.thecity.nyc/2020_03_covid-19-tracker/. Accessed 13 April 2020.
NYC Health. COVID-19: Data. 2020; https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page. Accessed 15 April 2020.
European Commission. Population: Demographic situation, languages and religions. 2019; https://eacea.ec.europa.eu/national-policies/eurydice/content/population-demographic-situation-languages-and-religions-7_en. Accessed 13 April 2020.
City population. Bruxelles Municipality. 2019; https://www.citypopulation.de/en/belgium/bruxelles/_/21004__bruxelles/. Accessed 13 April 2020.
Brussels Institute for Statistics and Analysis. Key figures for the Brussels-Capital Region. 2017; http://statistics.brussels/figures/key-figures-for-the-region#.XpScEcgzZPZ. Accessed 13 April 2020.
Federal Public Service. The geographical distribution of accredited hospital beds. 2020; https://www.healthybelgium.be/en/key-data-in-healthcare/general-hospitals/organisation-of-the-hospital-landscape/categorisation-of-hospital-activities/the-geographical-distribution-of-accredited-hospital-beds. Accessed 13 April 2020.
Sciensano. COVID-19 - Situation épidémiologique. 2020; https://epistat.wiv-isp.be/covid/. Accessed 15 April 2020.
Portal del Ayuntamiento de Madrid. Portal web del Ayuntamiento de Madrid. 2019; https://www.madrid.es/portal/site/munimadrid#. Accessed 13 April 2020.
Instituto Nacional de Estadistica. Demografía y población. 2019; https://www.ine.es/. Accessed 13 April 2020.
Instituto Nacional de Estadistica. Atlas de la movilidad residencia-trabajo en Comunidad de Madrid 2017. 2017; https://www.madrid.org/iestadis/fijas/estructu/general/territorio/atlasmovilidad2017/02_caract_gnral.html. Accessed 13 April 2020.
Ministerio de Sanidad de España. Situación de COVID-19 en España. 2020; https://covid19.isciii.es/. Accessed 13 April 2020.
Ministerio de Sanidad de España. Situación de COVID-19 en España. 2020.
Hospital IFEMA. Información oficial COVID19. 2020; https://www.ifema.es/covid19-este-virus-lo-paramos-unidos. Accessed 13 April 2020.
Ministerio de Sanidad de España. Situación de COVID-19 en España. 2020; https://covid19.isciii.es/. Accessed 15 April 2020.
Institut National de la statistique et des études éeconomiques. The National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies collects, analyses and disseminates information on the French economy and society. 2019; https://www.insee.fr/en/accueil. Accessed 13 April 2020.
Institut National de la statistique et des études éeconomiques. The National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies collects, analyses and disseminates information on the French economy and society. 2019; https://www.insee.fr/en/accueil.
Institut National de la statistique et des études éeconomiques. Les mobilités dans le Bassin parisien à trois âges de la vie : faire ses études, aller travailler, prendre sa retraite. 2019; https://www.insee.fr/fr/statistiques/4258068?sommaire=4258113. Accessed 13 April 2020.
Ministère des Solidarités et de la Santé. Nombre de lits de réanimation, de soins intensifs et de soins continus en France, fin 2013 et 2018. 2020. Accessed 13 April 2020.
Agence régional de santé Ile-de-France (Siège). Coronavirus (Covid-19) : La lutte contre l’épidémie en Île-de-France. 2020; https://www.iledefrance.ars.sante.fr/coronavirus-covid-19-lars-ile-de-france-mobilisee. Accessed 13 April 2020.
Gouvernement France. COVID-19 en France. 2020; https://www.gouvernement.fr/info-coronavirus/carte-et-donnees. Accessed 13 April 2020.
World Population Review. London Population 2020. 2020; https://worldpopulationreview.com/world-cities/london-population/. Accessed 15 April 2020.
NHS England. Bed Availability and Occupancy Data – Overnight. 2020; https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/bed-availability-and-occupancy/bed-data-overnight/. Accessed 15 April 2020.
Financial Times. NHS enlists all English private hospitals to treat coronaviru. 2020; https://www.ft.com/content/c9a9be78-6b7b-11ea-89df-41bea055720b. Accessed 15 April 2020.
NHS England. New NHS nightingale hospital to fight coronavirus. 2020; https://www.england.nhs.uk/2020/03/new-nhs-nightingale-hospital-to-fight-coronavirus/. Accessed 15 April 2020.
NHS England. COVID-19 Daily Deaths. 2020; https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/. Accessed 15 April 2020.
Istituto Nazionale di Statistica (ISTAT). Popolazione residente al 1° gennaio. 2019; http://dati.istat.it/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=DCIS_POPRES1. Accessed 13 April 2020.
Odone A, Delmonte D, Scognamiglio T, Signorelli C. COVID-19 deaths in Lombardy. Lancet Public Health. 2020;in press.
Dipartimento della Protezione Civile. COVID-19 Italia-Monitoraggio della situazione. 2020; http://www.protezionecivile.gov.it/attivita-rischi/rischio-sanitario/emergenze/coronavirus. Accessed 15 April 2020.
Ministero della Salute. Covid-19 - Situazione in Italia. 2020; http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/nuovocoronavirus/dettaglioContenutiNuovoCoronavirus.jsp?area=nuovoCoronavirus&id=5351&lingua=italiano&menu=vuoto. Accessed 13 April 2020.
Emilia-Romagna Region. Epidemia COVID-19. Aggiornamento del 17 aprile 2020 sui dati del giorno precedente. 2020.
Rajgor DD, Lee MH, Archuleta S, Bagdasarian N, Quek SC. The many estimates of the COVID-19 case fatality rate. Lancet Infect Dis. 2020.
Gianfredi V, Balzarini F, Gola M, et al. Leadership in Public Health: Opportunities for Young Generations Within Scientific Associations and the Experience of the "Academy of Young Leaders". Front Public Health. 2019;7:378.
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0) which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Transfer of Copyright and Permission to Reproduce Parts of Published Papers.
Authors retain the copyright for their published work. No formal permission will be required to reproduce parts (tables or illustrations) of published papers, provided the source is quoted appropriately and reproduction has no commercial intent. Reproductions with commercial intent will require written permission and payment of royalties.